💰 Value — bookie prices vs the exchange
Where a bookmaker is offering a longer price than the Betfair Exchange thinks is fair. The fair price is the exchange back price with the market's margin stripped out (de-vigged across the whole field). Edge is the arithmetic gap between the two — no prediction model is involved. This is observational data, not betting advice, and it is unvalidated: paper-trade it against BSP before treating it as anything more.
Frequently asked questions
What does "value" mean here?
A bookmaker is offering longer odds than the Betfair Exchange's fair price for the same horse. That is an arithmetic comparison of two prices — it is not a prediction that the horse will win.
What is the "fair" price?
The exchange back price with the market's built-in margin removed. We strip the margin across the whole field, and skip any race where we can't price enough of the field to do that properly.
Does this use an AI or prediction model?
No. There is no model of the horse's chance anywhere in this page. It compares observed prices, nothing more.
Is this profitable?
Unknown, and we won't claim otherwise. The board is unvalidated: we settle every pick against the real Betfair Starting Price and will only publish performance once there is a large enough sample to mean anything.
Why is the list often empty?
Because a bookmaker beating the de-vigged exchange price is genuinely rare. An empty board is the normal result. If a price source is down we say so at the top of the page, so you can tell a quiet day from a broken feed.